This is a long post. Most people won't care what I have to say, but I like business, so I'm posting it anyway....
Not that they probably weren't expecting it though.
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More expensive+less sales=less profit. If they turned a profit that is (they probably didn't make a loss only because M$ paid big bucks for the timed exclusivity considering they were saying a while ago that most of their HD titles needed to sell half a million to break even or something)
I trimmed your post down to the relevant points. I won't argue that Vesperia 360's Japan sales were great. They were good for the 360 in Japan and Tales hasn't sold all that well recently anyway. The problem is that in Vesperia's case, Japanese sales figures don't mean a damn thing. They don't even come close to painting the whole picture. Perhaps better stated, they're not worth discussing.
1) Namco knew what they were getting into with Vesperia and they knew it was a gamble. Do you really think they looked at the install base of the 360 and thought that it would be Japan's next big hit? If they did, they should fire their analyst.
2) It was a gamble worth making because you don't need sales when someone is giving you money directly. You make it sound like it's a bad thing that Namdai got money from MS. I don't and I'm sure they don't look at it that way.
Now let's talk about how this actually played out. Namdai looked at the PS3 install base and they looked at the 360 install base. They looked at both Japanese and international sales estimates. They looked at development cost. They looked at the possibility going multiplat. They looked at a juicy offering of cash from MS for a timed exclusive. They looked at estimated sales of a PS3 version if released later. They put all of these things together.
I'm making several assumptions for the sake of fairness.
- I'm assuming that estimated sales are the same regardless of timing and platform. In reality, the timed exclusivity of the 360 version has allowed them to sell far more copies in Japan than they would of. Many of those fans will not double-dip with the PS3 version. I'm willing to bet that the boost in 360 sales is far more significant than the loss of PS3 sales, but just to make this worth looking at, we'll pretend they're equal. That means if all other things were equal, exclusivity would have no impact on TOTAL sales.
- I'm assuming that a non-exclusive multiplat would've meant international releases for both versions. I'm also assuming that the PS3 version won't be localized given the current situation. Honestly, the odds of the PS3 version being localized remain the same regardless of timed exclusivity. I just want to give the PS3 some kind of an edge.
- If we're to look at this from Namdai's point of view, we have to assume that they would make them the most cash.
Est360Sales(JPN+INT) + EstPS3Sales(JPN) - DevCosts + MSMoney > Est360Sales(JPN+INT) + EstPS3Sales(JPN+INT) - DevCosts
Let's simplify that.
MSMoney > EstPS3Sales(INT)
So what can we draw from this long ass post?
1) MS must've put up a lot of money. It was theoretically of greater value than worldwide sales of Vesperia PS3. In the end, we can just draw the same conclusion as always - international Tales fans aren't worth much.
2) If they do release the PS3 version internationally, then only difference in our math would be lower overall profits in Japan without the extra 360 sales. International PS3 sales would cancel each other out, meaning MSMoney > 0. Now, I'm no expert, but in my mind, MS' money is always better than nothing.
In conclusion, the game is out for both systems and Namdai has more money for it's trouble. So what exactly is the problem? If you read all this, I love you. ...I'm going to fail life if I don't get my shit in gear.
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