The Next-Gen Outlook: Sony Vs. Nintendo Vs. Microsoft

[Fluffy]

I know, it's been discussed to death. But I couldn't find anything really getting into this on the forum (other than The Decline of Nintendo, but I thought this was a little too off topic..?), so I thought it might be fun. Anyway, here we go...

I thought that in the developments of recent months it would be interesting to talk about Nintendo as compared to Microsoft and Sony as it now stands, after E32k6 (I didn't attend myself, so if any of you did, please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm going on reports from EGM and Game Informer, who I find to be less biased than others, as they report on all the systems... kinda obvious, anyway).

E3 tends to set the standards for the next generation. An outlook into what the next 5 or so years are going to look like in terms of competition between the top gaming companies. If that's true, and if E32k6 is any indication, then Nintendo will rise from its current 3rd (worldwide) for gaming. One simple report I found: the lines for the Sony presentation had a 20-minute wait to them. The lines for the Wii? 5 hours from what I read. I think that speaks for itself. People just weren't excited about Sony and what they had to offer compared to what Nintendo was offering. Part of that, I think, has to do with the fact that Sony had nothing really new to show. They'd been delaying the PS3 for quite some time, and, well, it hurt them.

This month's issue of Wired magazine has a very in depth look at Sony going into the next gen, and the outlook, as they see it, does not look good. "Never try to introduce the same product twice. That was the lesson from the Electronic Entertainment Expo in May." Then let's talk about the price tag. The less expensive model of the PS3 is still $100 more expensive than the MORE expensive X-Box 360, and Nintendo vowed the Wii wouldn't cost more than $250. I don't know about most people, but I don't, and I doubt I will anytime in the near future, have $500-$600 to blow on a gaming machine.

Yes, as much as Sony would like people to admit the fact that it's a home entertainment system, not just a gaming machine, and that's their justification for its price-tag, in the end, 99% of people buying a PS3 will buy one for the games. Not the internet access, not the CD player or DVD player, and no, folks, not even for the Blu-ray player. Sure, it's $400 less expensive than a normal blue-ray player on the market, but I doubt most people are going to be attracted to the PS3 because of it's blue-ray movie playing capibilities. The other thing is, 85% of homes in the US currently have DVD players, and I don't know how keen the public is on "upgrading" their movie player right now. Especially with the price tag. Let's not even mention the conflict with Toshiba's HD-DVDs (Another VCR vs. Betamax in the works?).

So that's where Sony stands. Nintendo, on the otherhand, is going quite strongly. The DS is the best selling console (it's a handheld console, but you get the idea), and has been clearly beating out Sony and its PSP (and the PS2), and Microsoft with it's X-Box in terms of sales (mostly in Japan, but the DS is still selling very well in the USA). As I mentioned before, they also blew away E32k6. A simple search on Google for "sony vs nintendo vs microsoft+polls" brings up these statements from gamers:

"Wii, for sure. Good, not great graphics are required for great games. Great graphics force developers to spend more money on games that may not even make enough money to break even. Spending the money on the Wii controller on the other hand, gives developers the ability to create better games with good, but not great graphics."

"I think that Nintendo will finally be on top for a change with the Wii. Especially since they have the new Zelda game coming out as a launch title. Im going to spend at least $400 on the Wii, games, and accesories when it comes out."
-http://www.ghacks.net/2006/06/11/the-next-gen-war-microsoft-vs-nintendo-vs-sony/

That was the first link i clicked on, and those are 2 of the 4 responses, you can read the others for yourself if you want.

So that covers Nintendo.

So Microsoft... Well, I have to say, I have mixed feelings about the 360. I've seen more letters of complaint for the 360 than anything else (or I did, haven't checked in a while) -- one person having to return and exchange his 360 five times because it didn't work (damn, I wish I could remember where I read the letter... Some gaming magazine... take my word for it, don't trust me if you don't want to). And yes, we have to remember that the 360 is still quite new, and there are going to be bugs with the system. But I've never seen as many complaint letters in magazines for any other system, and every other system combined, like I've seen for the 360. There's the negative. The positive is that the 360 is actually garnering better games. I have to say I was extremely unimpressed and letdown with the X-Box. Most of its games could be played on the PS2 and/or GC, and those that couldn't were usually crap. The ones that weren't crap usually made it to PC (with the exception of Halo 2, but unlike some out there, I refuse to buy my system for one game). The 360 has a ton of games that look simply amazing, and are 360 exclusives. Has anyone watched any of the footage for Gears of War? That's the game that from what I read stole the show at E32k6, the game to truly look out for. I always felt that with the X-Box, Microsoft was relying on Halo way too much. But the 360 doesn't seem to be doing that. Despite the fact that a trailer for Halo 3 is out, there's not as much hype as you'd think.

Of course, in the end, only time will tell. There are those people out there willing to dish out $600 for a PS3, but then there are those others (the majority of gamers, I would think), that won't and/or can't. Here are some polls on GameFaqs that are pretty telling:

Do you think the PlayStation 3 will keep or beat the PS2's over 50% market share?:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2478 -- around 75% of people don't think Sony will hold onto their huge market share. (yes, a lot of them still feel it will be the leader, but losing its huge market share is a huge blow... if it happens)

Do you plan to buy a DS or PSP this year?: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2467 More people have and/or want a DS than a PSP...

Do you plan to buy an Xbox 360 this year?: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2466 24.47% of people said they'd get one... if the price dropped. And what of the PS3? Still 46.53% said they didn't even WANT one.

Do you plan to pre-order a PlayStation 3?: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2461 a whopping 48.98% of people said "No, I don't want one" ...wow

Do you plan to pre-order a Wii?: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2462 ...22.13% of people don't want one. hmm...

So, there's my little contribution. It's a lot of stuff to think about (but it was also a lot of stuff to type. I think that stuff is pretty telling in what it says. I think, though, that the Wired article put it best for Nintendo: "The Wii ... doesn't try to outdo anyone on graphics or muscle or computational power - in fact, it opts out of the arms race entirely."

On a more personal level, I guess I come across looking like a pretty big Nintendo fanboy. I'm not trying to, and I never have been a huge Nintendo fanboy (I believed in Sega right up to the end... I was one of the lucky people to get a Dreamcast, hehe...), and then I pretty much became devoted to Sony. But that's really changed. I'm very unhappy with them right now. I just feel like, If they wanted me to stay loyal to them, they'd give me a bloody way to play their console outside of GameStop. The way things are looking now, I won't get a PS3 until the PS4 comes out. ...I'm not even going to get into the people (including the market analysts) predicting another Dreamcast, I doubt that'll happen. Still, I think Sony has lost touch with its consumers, whereas Nintendo is once again regaining that touch, and Microsoft is figuring out how to do the same. X-Box Live is already a giant leap forward.

So there, there's the way I think things are going, and where things stand. I don't honestly know how things will play out in the coming years. I just think that we're in for some big changes ahead. Let's hope they're for the best.

[Kogahazan]

I happened to read that Wired article as well. It was interesting.

As for my thoughts, I say it is still a bit too early to tell how it will end up. I do believe the Wii will help bring up Nintendo more, even though the DS is already doing it quite nicely. The 360 is a good start for Microsoft. They just need to iron out the problems with the console and get a few more quality games and they'll hold steady. PS3 will bring down Sony. I don't believe it will severly kill them, but it will probably deal a big blow to them.

I'm still doubtful on things, but I don't think any company will drop out because of the next generation... Possibly Sony, but I think they're more likely to revise their business plan rather than dropping out entirely.

[Kikujiro]

To tell things bluntly, I wouldn't even consider buying a PS3 if it wasn't for MGS and FF.

I saw what the 360 could do, and i like it much. Also, I was attracted a lot by the possibilities opened by the Wii, and that's probably why I'll buy one first out of the three next-gen consoles.

However, I hope that Big N won't screw up everything by pulling a sucky online plateform or a 250€ price for Europe.
I mean, just look at the DS online. It's simple, efficient, but it's TOO simple, there's not much possibilities. Pictochat being only wireless-based is also a big let down.
And for those who might wonder why I'd complain about a 250€ price for Europe, simple: 250€ =/= 250$
250€=320$!
The other day, at Leizpig' Game Convention, Nintendo said "don't worry, it'll cost less than 250€!", which can obviousely mean "it'll cost 249.99€!"

[Fluffy]

Yeah, I wouldn't consider buying one without FF. Of course, if the PS3 doesn't sell like Sony promises, maybe SquareEnix will release 360 ports of them. Though that's a huge, HUGE stretch by any means. The only cross platform Final Fantasy is FF XI (I'm not counting remakes and re-releases). Square has always committed to one sole system for the main series for FF. But here's hoping I won't have to dish out $600 to play FF XIII...

The Wii is probably going to be my first next gen console, too. I found a nice website with some news on the Wii's price: http://www.videogamesblog...es-japanese-wii-price.htm

Japanese prize = 25,000 yen, which, after taxes and other things, amounts to: $225 / €225 / £150

As the article says: "Add in a second controller and you’re at $250, you’re going to get at least one new game, which puts you at $300. Perhaps these low prices are why Nintendo has predicted on the same press conference that sales of six million units by March 2007 are achievable for the Wii."

That makes me even happier. Imagine, I can get my hands on a next gen console, a second controller, and a game, for half what I would pay for just ONE SYSTEM. Pretty damn sweet in my opinion.

Let's just hope the system delivers more than just first party games. That's the only thing I have a complaint about when it comes to Nintendo--the lack of third-party games. But seeing as how Nintendo promised innovation with the DS, and third-party developers took advantage, and are continuing to, the Wii could very well do the exact same thing.

[chronomaster5042]

The Wii is by far the cheapest, and will be able to play all those old classics (though how much they are who knows).  The PS3 has some great titles that have already been announced (DMC4, FF13, MGS4) and Backwards compat with PS1&2.  The 360 has XBL (though with the PS3 having this for free...)
For me it's more of a PS3 vs Wii battle.  The 360 just doesn't have anything to make me go "I WANT NOW!!" like the Wii and PS3 do.  So, I'll probably end up waiting for a PS3 price drop before i getting it, and purchase a Wii sometime next summer (So all the games i want are hopefully on Virtual Console by then)

[Rhapsody]

However, I hope that Big N won't screw up everything by pulling a sucky online plateform or a 250€ price for Europe.
I mean, just look at the DS online. It's simple, efficient, but it's TOO simple, there's not much possibilities. Pictochat being only wireless-based is also a big let down.
And for those who might wonder why I'd complain about a 250€ price for Europe, simple: 250€ =/= 250$
250€=320$!
The other day, at Leizpig' Game Convention, Nintendo said "don't worry, it'll cost less than 250€!", which can obviousely mean "it'll cost 249.99€!"

You think that's bad?

Current UK Xbox 360 Core/Premium price = £210 ($400)/£280 ($530)
Confirmed PlayStation 3 Premium price (Basic system will probably not get a UK release) = £425 ($800)

If the Wii costs £250, that'll be the equivilent of $470! Hell, even if it's £150, that'd still be $280! To sell the Wii at the same adjusted price point as the much expected $200, it'd have to be £105 in the UK!

[Fluffy]

New poll on GameFaqs:

When do you plan to buy a PlayStation 3?: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2483

As I post this,

42.64% of people say "I'll wait until there's a price drop"

another 34.37% say "I doubt I'll ever buy one"

another 14.78% say "I'll wait a few months until things die down"

which gives us a grand total of 91.79% of respondants will NOT be buying a PS3 on launch day.

Total number of voters at this time: 80576

GameFaqs is a pretty visited site--I've seen hundreds of thousands of respondants on some of their polls... I think they give a pretty good outlook with their polls. Still, we'll just have to wait and see. Though I doubt that the PS3 has any chance of reaching the level that PS2 is at (200 million sold or something around there) if its price doesn't drop--and drop sharply, and drop friggin quickly.

**MORE**
Oh, and this one's interesting, too: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2477

What's going to be the most exciting day for you for the rest of this year?

The Wii's release day = 32.95% (30,000 votes)

November 17th, PS3 Day! = 12.83% (11,683 votes)

Almost as exciting as the Wii's release day would be...

Some other day, for some other reason... = 27.32% (24,872 votes)

...Most of you have probably lost interest anyway. XD

[Cless]

I want to keep this short.

PS3. Expensive. Powerful. Won't reach the mass market for years. Certainly won't even come remotely close to the marketshare the previous PlayStations had. I'm sure a lot of devs will be jumping ship due to the limited audience and rising development costs. Sony's cocky attitude and arrogance are going to bite them in the ass.

Xbox 360. Still priced outside of the mass market. Does not appeal much to those who mainly play eastern games. Future in US and Europe kind of uncertain. Already failed in Japan, and failing harder than the original Xbox did.

Wii. Will win, easily. Price will be mass-market friendly from the get-go, and will have one of the strongest launch lineups ever. Strategy will bring in a lot more than just long time gamers and young people., ala DS. Strong focus on gameplay than cutting edge graphics (which will still look good enough to most people).

I really think Nintendo has an ace up its sleeve.

[Phren]

Nin's done a good thing, both in it's own right and with the judgement of its competetors.
The fact that they have a standard controller this time won't scare away people who already have a traditional RPG or somehting game in mind that might not work so well with Wii's . uh.. gadgetry. If they can win back more 3rd part support, that will help tons.

To me, FF and many other series died long ago, so there are few series I really am loyal to anymore that I'd buy a system for, let alone a $400+ one.
Not that I love Nintendo, they've had some evil practices that have bothered me, but these days, Sony's so much worse in that department, especially in the US.

I really think, with some advertising to clue in the huge game idiot demographic over here, (and hopefully, a good system for downloading and *long term storage*of the retro titles - as well as a nice price and good selection), Nintendo's got a really good thing going this time.

[Goshi]

My opinion is pretty much the same as Cless. I had high hopes for the PS3, it looked quite promising but now its just too damn expensive even for me, plus because of Sony's new approach to try and prevent things like homebrews or chipping is making me just dispise them.

nintendo I first though was going to be weak and feeble, back when it was called "Revolution" I thought of it as nothing more than a gimmick. I think Sony's new crappy approach is probably what changed my mind about them. But maybe its because of the act that I then relised the DS did well with its gimmick why couldn't the Wii do so as well.

I do hope that new Sonic game is coming for the Wii too though. Being a Sonic fanboy I must play it.

EDIT: Hmmm... one site I looked at seemed to differ when it came to GameFAQs results...

Sony PS3 - 702 Votes (46%)
Nintendo Wii - 658 Votes (43%)
Microsoft Xbox 360 - 164 Votes (10%)

I would link to the site but it supplies warez and all that yadda yadda, but maybe things are a bit closer than I thought. Then again this poll is quite old so who knows.

[Phren]

diffrent sites supply different demographics, and slightly different questions might turn in different results. Don't forget, besides the normal voters, those with a strong opinion (fanboys and anti-fanboys) are more motivated to vote, the the poll gets a little bias along the way, So I really don;t trust polls too much 

[Goshi]

Anything GameFAQs tends to have massive bias so I wouldn't be surprised.

[Fluffy]

Anything GameFAQs tends to have massive bias (for Sony)... Anyway, that's the way it seems in the older polls... You can check for yourself, posting all that stuff is annoying. XD

But yeah, if you look at the polls asking about PS3 and then the ones asking Wii and stuff, the older ones before PS3's price announcement are waaay in Sony's favor... now they're in Nintendo's. ...I dunno, but that's just the way it seems. Other websites seem to show the same thing. So do the magazines I've read. ...Just reporting what I see. ^_^;

[Phren]

Can anyone lend any weight to the rumor of Sony copyrighting a disc-marking system recently for possibly use in the PS3?
(ie, it writs an image to the game discs so it won't play in another system - preventing even a used game market)

[Kogahazan]

Can anyone lend any weight to the rumor of Sony copyrighting a disc-marking system recently for possibly use in the PS3?
(ie, it writs an image to the game discs so it won't play in another system - preventing even a used game market)

There was something about that whole "one system per game" thing around the time the PS3 was announced. I think they said that's not what's going to happen, but I haven't really heard much about it.

[bungiefan]

There was something about that whole "one system per game" thing around the time the PS3 was announced. I think they said that's not what's going to happen, but I haven't really heard much about it.

The most I've heard since was that it wasn't intended to be used for consumer discs. The protection was designed to prevent software leaks, like the leak of Halo 2. The idea is that development and test copies, as well as review copies sent to magazines and such, will be protected that way, and lock to the system they use it on, preventing the game from being ripped and leaked online. The practice becomes too restricting on customer rights if they do it to our discs.